The possibility of a Greek default is closer to 50%, up from the 25% which was estimated last week, according to Citigroup economists Willern Buiter and Ebrahim Rahbari, in their latest “Global Economics View” report published overnight.

Technically speaking, EUR/USD continues to trade within range between 1.3025 and 1.3220. “The sharp rebound from the low end of the range [Monday] is impulsive and gives scope to an eventual upside break,” says Jamie Saettele, CMT of DailyFX. “It is also possible that a triangle is unfolding from the 1/27 high. An upside break would be expected since triangles are continuation patterns and the trend that preceded the triangle was up.”

At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading a tight 1.3109-33 range so far in Tuesday’s Asia-Pacific session, last quoted under pressure in the 1.3120 price zone, just above the 50-day EMA. To the downside, support is seen at 1.3075 (3 Jan high), with resistance noted at 1.3205 (25 Nov low).

Tue, Feb 07 2012, 00:57 GMT | FXstreet.com